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Wolviesix ha scritto: 10/05/2021, 15:50 Non ricordo cosa si dicesse da ste parti dopo che nel 2012 ci sono stati 3 perfect game nel giro di 4 mesi dopo che ce n'erano stati 18 nei 108 anni precedenti.

Wolviesix ha scritto: 10/05/2021, 15:50 Non ricordo cosa si dicesse da ste parti dopo che nel 2012 ci sono stati 3 perfect game nel giro di 4 mesi dopo che ce n'erano stati 18 nei 108 anni precedenti.

Wolviesix ha scritto: 10/05/2021, 23:57 Comunque leggevo su Twitter da Lindsey Adler che la pallina sarebbe addirittura più leggera, ma non avendo la sottoscrizione a The Athletic non ho letto l'articolo.

In response to decreased action throughout the game, MLB announced this year that it was changing the physical properties of the baseball to make it lighter and more likely to stay in the yard. This was after years of baseballs changing without notice, most of which was them becoming springier off the bat and more likely to end up as a home run, while the league said the fluctuations in their most important equipment were unintentional.

Unfortunately, the early results indicate the new baseball may have backfired. Exit velocities are up, but the ball is dying in the outfield. Rob Arthur, a data scientist who has extensively covered the various changes to the baseball, summed it up well for Baseball Prospectus.

“(I)magine hitting a balloon and a dodgeball with a bat, swinging with the same force and angle each time. When you hit the balloon, it will explode off the bat at high velocity. But as it travels, air resistance will rapidly slow it down, and it won’t go very far. A heavier dodgeball, by contrast, won’t come off the impact as quickly, but it will also keep traveling once you hit it.

“A ball with reduced mass would behave a little more like the balloon and a little less like the dodgeball: higher exit velocity and less carry. And that’s exactly the pattern in the data: at the upper end, exit velocities are up by around 0.8 mph, which ought to boost fly-ball distance substantially (by around four feet). But the reduced carry from lower weight cancels that out, and average fly-ball distance has actually dropped slightly. (In raw terms, distance is down about five feet from 2019, but if you adjust for the weather, it may only be down a foot or two.)”

Another alarming trend that may have changed with the new baseball is that pitch movement actually increased. As Eno Sarris noted for The Athletic in April (and is still true), fastballs are staying up in the zone for longer than in previous years and curveballs are dropping more.

The pitch movement is what Aaron Judge has noticed about the new baseball.

“When you square it up, it’s still a home run, right?” Judge said. “So people are still hitting ’em. I’m seeing (Giancarlo Stanton) light up the scoreboard with 118, 120 mile per hour (exit velocities), so I don’t think it’s really changing too much. They’re just moving all over the place, really.”

While it’s hard to imagine a change to the baseball could keep Stanton from crushing them to the moon, the home-run rate actually decreased in April. At FanGraphs, Devan Fink found that batted balls that would have likely been home runs in April 2019 are getting converted to outs as they stay in the yard:

“In 2019, fly balls hit between 100-104 mph and at a 20-24 degree launch angle went for outs (including sac flies) just 18% of the time; using the inverse, hitters would reach base 82% of the time when they’d connect. In 2021, however, hitters are reaching base just 65% of the time. That’s still a solid figure, but it provides further evidence that, rather than convert home runs into other types of base hits, MLB has only reduced offense overall. That’s not a shocking conclusion, but at least it is consistent.”

Rocky ha scritto: 11/05/2021, 8:41 “In 2019, fly balls hit between 100-104 mph and at a 20-24 degree launch angle went for outs (including sac flies) just 18% of the time; using the inverse, hitters would reach base 82% of the time when they’d connect. In 2021, however, hitters are reaching base just 65% of the time. That’s still a solid figure, but it provides further evidence that, rather than convert home runs into other types of base hits, MLB has only reduced offense overall. That’s not a shocking conclusion, but at least it is consistent.”

Dodgers fan #7 ha scritto: 10/05/2021, 22:00

Wolviesix ha scritto: 10/05/2021, 15:50 Non ricordo cosa si dicesse da ste parti dopo che nel 2012 ci sono stati 3 perfect game nel giro di 4 mesi dopo che ce n'erano stati 18 nei 108 anni precedenti.

Non cose bellissime. Quello era un periodo fortemente favorevole ai lanciatori anche perché, vado un po' a memoria, la zona di strike si era ingrandita abbastanza. Anche in quel caso si veniva da tre lustri di forti prestazioni offensive (la HR race e cose simili) che pian piano stavano rientrando anche in virtù di controlli vagamente seri sulle sostanze assunte dai giocatori.

La cosa che fa più storcere il naso è che da qualche tempo a questa parte si sta cercando di cambiare le varie tendenze modificando in maniera sostanziale la palla, che di per sé mi sembra un'operazione abbastanza invasiva. Farlo inoltre ogni tre anni rende peggiore il contesto. A me, credo a molti, sta anche bene che ci siano meno fuoricampo ed i lanci abbiano più movimento e sono convinto che con un approccio diverso di squadre e giocatori la AVG della lega possa risalire su valori consueti, che sia però una scelta duratura nel tempo, senza fare ulteriori cambiamenti "di pancia".