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Vi riporto la guida al Super Tuesday pubblicata dalla newsletter di Larry Sabato "Crystal Ball" (tra l'altro e' tutto gratis, se siete interessati ad iscrivervi).
Cominciamo con i Repubblicani:

Alabama Republican primary

Delegates at stake*: all 50 -- 29 statewide (26 at-large, 3 automatic), 21 CD

Allocation method: Proportional allocation by statewide and CD vote (20% threshold for both) with winner-take-all trigger at 50% in both

2008 primary winner: Mike Huckabee

2012 primary winner: Rick Santorum

2012 white evangelical % of primary electorate: 75%

Ideologically, Alabama’s 2012 GOP primary electorate looked similar to South Carolina’s. But the Yellowhammer State’s Republican electorate was 75% white Evangelical compared to the Palmetto State’s 64%. The impact of the huge percentage of born-again voters is reflected in the identities of the past two statewide primary winners: Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012.
Alaska Republican caucuses

Delegates at stake*: all 28 -- 28 statewide (22 at-large, 3 automatic, and 3 CD)

Allocation method: Proportional allocation by statewide vote (13% threshold) for all delegates

2008 caucus winner: Mitt Romney

2012 caucus winner: Mitt Romney

Alaska Republicans will hold what is essentially a firehouse primary, but it is commonly denoted as a caucus to differentiate it from a standard primary. Romney and Santorum fought to a near-draw in the Last Frontier’s 2012 presidential preference vote, with Ron Paul winning about a quarter of the vote to finish third. Perhaps Cruz can win over many Santorum voters as well as some Paul supporters as he’s actively sought to attract Rand Paul backers. The caucus environment may also favor Cruz given his commitment to field organizing. On the other hand, if Trump’s coalition is a version of the old Ron Paul coalition on steroids, this could be a good state for him as well.

Arkansas Republican primary

Delegates at stake*: all 40 -- 28 statewide (25 at-large, 3 automatic), 12 CD

Allocation method: Proportional allocation by statewide and CD vote (15% threshold for both) with winner-take-all trigger at 50% in districts. If no one wins a majority in a district, the winner receives two delegates and second-place receives one. If a candidate wins a majority of the statewide vote, any other candidate garnering 15% or more receives one statewide delegate and the remaining statewide delegates are allocated to the winner.

2008 primary winner: Mike Huckabee

2012 primary winner: Mitt Romney

2008 white evangelical % of primary electorate: 68%

With Mike Huckabee unable to make any waves in 2016, there won’t be a home-state candidate making a play for Arkansas. The last time the state voted on Super Tuesday was in 2008, and nearly seven out of every 10 Razorback Republicans was a white evangelical that cycle. If that percentage remains roughly the same this time around -- it’s tough to say as Alabama’s electorate went from 68% in 2008 to 75% white evangelical in 2012 (there was no Arkansas exit poll in 2012) -- then Arkansas would be something of an average of Alabama and South Carolina. Like much of the South, Cruz and Trump appear the most likely to compete for the top spot in the Razorback State.

Colorado Republican caucuses

Delegates at stake: 0 (of 37 total)

Allocation method: No 2016 national delegates will be bound by the precinct caucuses in Colorado.

2008 caucus winner: Mitt Romney

2012 caucus winner: Rick Santorum

For a number of reasons, including the Republican National Committee’s new rules requiring presidential preference votes to be binding, the Colorado GOP has opted against holding such a ballot at its precinct caucuses. The allocation of delegates will be determined at the congressional district conventions and the state convention, some of which may be committed to individual presidential contenders or uncommitted. North Dakota and Wyoming have made similar choices.

Georgia Republican primary

Delegates at stake*: all 76 -- 34 statewide (31 at-large, 3 automatic), 42 CD

Allocation method: Proportional allocation by statewide and CD vote (20% threshold for both) with winner-take-all trigger at 50% in both. If no one wins a majority in a district, the winner receives two delegates and second-place receives one.

2008 primary winner: Mike Huckabee

2012 primary winner: Newt Gingrich

2012 white evangelical % of primary electorate: 64%

The Georgia primary electorate won’t look all that different from many other Southern states: In 2012, the Peach State was one of six primary contests in the South (including Oklahoma) that was at least 64% white evangelical. But it will get plenty of attention as the second-biggest Super Tuesday state in terms of total delegates, trailing only Texas.

Massachusetts Republican primary

Delegates at stake*: all 42 -- 42 statewide (12 at-large, 3 automatic, and 27 CD)

Allocation method: Proportional allocation by statewide vote (5% threshold) for all delegates

2008 primary winner: Mitt Romney

2012 primary winner: Mitt Romney

2012 Moderate/Liberal % of primary electorate: 49%

Whereas most of the March 1 contests will be conservative southern primaries or small-state caucuses, the Bay State primary will feature more moderate Republican voters. In 2012, of the states with exit or entrance polling, Massachusetts had the second-largest contingent of moderate-to-liberal Republicans (49%), behind only nearby Vermont (also voting March 1). Considering his success in next-door New Hampshire and his broader ideological (or fairly non-ideological) appeal, Trump may be best positioned to win the largest proportion of Massachusetts delegates. But John Kasich only narrowly trailed Trump among moderate voters in New Hampshire on Feb. 9, so he may have a path.

Still, it’s worth noting GOP voters may be altering how they define themselves ideologically: In 2012, 47% of New Hampshire’s Republican primary electorate was moderate or liberal. In 2016, that figure fell to 29%. Mostly, there was a shift of voters into the somewhat conservative column, expanding from 32% in 2012 to 45% in 2016. This may be more evidence of polarization as fewer voters view themselves as occupying the political middle ground.

Minnesota Republican caucuses

Delegates at stake*: all 38 -- 14 statewide (11 at-large, 3 automatic), 24 CD

Allocation method: Proportional allocation by statewide and CD vote (10% threshold for both). If a candidate wins 85% or more of the statewide vote, he receives all 38 of Minnesota’s national delegates.

2008 caucus winner: Mitt Romney

2012 caucus winner: Rick Santorum

Recall that Romney ran as a conservative in 2008, not as an establishment candidate as he did in 2012. Minnesota’s GOP caucuses have opted for backing less establishment candidates in the recent past, such as Romney in 2008 and Santorum in 2012. Cruz’s organizing prowess could be the difference in a state such as Minnesota.

North Dakota Republican caucuses

Delegates at stake: 0 (of 28 total)

Allocation method: No 2016 national delegates will be bound by the precinct caucuses in North Dakota.

2008 caucus winner: Mitt Romney

2012 caucus winner: Rick Santorum

Like Colorado and Wyoming, North Dakota won’t be holding a presidential preference vote. Also note that the Peace Garden State’s GOP precinct caucuses actually end March 1, with party rules calling for such events to be held between Jan. 1 and March 1, 2016.

Oklahoma Republican primary

Delegates at stake*: all 43 -- 28 statewide (25 at-large, 3 automatic), 15 CD

Allocation method: Proportional allocation by statewide and CD vote (15% threshold for both) with winner-take-all trigger at 50% in both, with other threshold and allocation complications.

2008 primary winner: John McCain

2012 primary winner: Rick Santorum

2012 white evangelical % of primary electorate: 72%

The Sooner State’s 2012 Republican primary electorate was one of four with at least 70% white evangelical participants. This helped shape the outcome of that cycle’s nomination contest, as Santorum won a close three-way battle with Romney and Gingrich in part by winning 37% among those primary voters. If Cruz is going to make a play for the nomination, he needs to win a state like Oklahoma, with its large base of born-again voters and its proximity to Texas.

Tennessee Republican primary

Delegates at stake*: all 58 -- 31 statewide (28 at-large, 3 automatic), 27 CD

Allocation method: Proportional allocation by statewide and CD vote (20% threshold for both) with winner-take-all trigger at 66.7% in both, with other threshold and allocation complications.

2008 primary winner: Mike Huckabee

2012 primary winner: Rick Santorum

2012 white evangelical % of primary electorate: 73%

Of states with exit polling in 2012, Tennessee’s GOP primary had the third-largest percentage of white evangelical voters, behind only Mississippi and Alabama. Can Cruz capitalize on his appeal among those voters? Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum did in 2008 and 2012, respectively, to win the Volunteer State.

Texas Republican primary

Delegates at stake*: all 155 -- 47 statewide (44 at-large, 3 automatic), 108 CD

Allocation method: Proportional allocation by statewide and CD vote (20% threshold for both) with winner-take-all trigger at 50% in both, with many other threshold and allocation complications.

2008 primary winner: John McCain

2012 primary winner: Mitt Romney

2008 Nonwhite % of primary electorate: 14%

Based on available 2008 and 2012 exit polls, Texas had the largest percentage of nonwhite Republican voters of any of the states that will have voted through March 1, 2016. In fact, one-tenth of the electorate was Hispanic in 2008 (the state went too late for exit polling in 2012). Cruz will hope they can help him achieve a huge home-turf win in the Lone Star State. Winning a statewide majority would give a candidate 47 delegates, about the whole allocation of some states (like Alabama), not to mention the congressional district delegates There hasn’t been any new polling in Texas, but a late January poll indicated that it will probably be hard for anyone to win a majority as long as the field remains somewhat crowded.

Vermont Republican primary

Delegates at stake*: all 16 -- 16 statewide (10 at-large, 3 automatic, and 3 CD)

Allocation method: Proportional allocation by statewide vote (20% threshold) with winner-take-all trigger at 50%

2008 primary winner: John McCain

2012 primary winner: Mitt Romney

2012 Moderate/Liberal % of primary electorate: 53%

Vermont’s 2012 GOP primary was the only one with a majority-moderate electorate. In light of his success next door in New Hampshire and his success with less conservative Republicans at the ballot box and in the polls, Trump may be a favorite in the Green Mountain State. If John Kasich can make a breakthrough on Super Tuesday, this might be a good target.

Virginia Republican primary

Delegates at stake*: all 49 -- 49 statewide (13 at-large, 3 automatic, and 33 CD)

Allocation method: Proportional allocation by statewide vote (no threshold) for all delegates

2008 primary winner: John McCain

2012 primary winner: Mitt Romney

2012 college graduate % of primary electorate: 58%

Barring some serious winnowing by South Carolina and Nevada, it seems likely that there’ll be more than two candidates running in Virginia on March 1. In 2012, only Romney and Paul made the ballot. Whoever is running on March 1 will face one of the more educated primary electorates. Of states with exit polling data in 2012, no state had a higher percentage of primary voters who were college graduates, 58% -- though it should be noted Connecticut had 63% in 2008.

What might be the impact? Based on many surveys and the first two exit polls of 2016, it’s clear that as the more education a voter has, the less likely he or she is to vote for Trump: In Iowa, Trump did seven points worse among college grads; in New Hampshire, he did 12 points worse. There may be an opportunity for a candidate such as Kasich or Rubio to make inroads in the highly educated suburbs of Washington, DC.

Wyoming Republican caucuses

Delegates at stake: 0 (of 29)

Allocation method: No 2016 national delegates will be bound by the precinct caucuses in Wyoming.

2008 caucus winner: Mitt Romney

2012 caucus winner: Mitt Romney

The Wyoming GOP chose not to have a presidential preference vote in 2016 as a part of its precinct caucuses, just like Colorado and North Dakota.

E i Democratici:

Alabama Democratic primary

Delegates at stake: 53 (35 CD, 18 statewide)

2008 primary winner: Barack Obama

2008 nonwhite % of electorate: 56% (51% black)

Alabama’s racial demographics are almost identical to South Carolina’s, which means that if Clinton wins the Palmetto State handily, there’s no reason why she shouldn’t be able to perform similarly here.

A Sanders strategy could be to concentrate his efforts in the northern part of the state, where there are relatively few African Americans. For instance, Alabama’s fourth and fifth congressional districts, in the northern part of the state, have smaller black populations than the state as a whole, so maybe Sanders can squeeze a few extra delegates out of these districts. Other fairly white parts of some Southern primary states with large African-American Democratic electorates include northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and western Virginia. It’ll be interesting to see how Sanders does in these regions even if he’s doing poorly in the statewide voting.

American Samoa Democratic caucus

Delegates at stake: Six (All six based on island-wide vote)

2008 caucus winner: Hillary Clinton

2008 nonwhite % of electorate: Unknown but very high

Clinton only won two caucuses in 2008: Nevada and American Samoa.

Arkansas Democratic primary

Delegates at stake: 32 (21 CD, 11 statewide)

2008 primary winner: Hillary Clinton

2008 nonwhite % of electorate: 20% (17% black)

On the surface, one would expect the state where Clinton served as first lady to strongly support her, as it did in 2008: She won 70% of the vote, her best primary performance anywhere. But Arkansas is also an interesting test as to whether Sanders’ strength among blue-collar whites will translate outside of places like Iowa and New Hampshire. Arkansas is mostly white and not very prosperous. For instance, New Hampshire has one of the nation’s highest median household incomes, while Arkansas has one of the lowest. Sanders did better among voters with lower income levels in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, although the difference was more pronounced in the first two states, which probably had something to do with Nevada’s greater diversity.

Still, in addition to her home field advantage and the likely backing of a small black voting bloc, Clinton could benefit from something else in Arkansas: About half its primary voters called themselves moderate in 2008, and Clinton did better with moderates than liberals in both Iowa and Nevada (the split between liberals and moderates wasn’t as clear in New Hampshire, although “very liberal” voters strongly backed Sanders in all three states). See the item on Oklahoma below for more on Sanders’ chances in states like Arkansas.

Colorado Democratic caucus

Delegates at stake**: 66 (43 CD, 23 statewide)

2008 caucus winner: Barack Obama

2008 nonwhite % of electorate: 20%*

It’s clear that Sanders is targeting Colorado as a key state on March 1: He’s outspending Clinton more than two to one on television in the lead-up to the caucus. To the extent that Colorado’s caucus turnout will be diverse, it’ll be much more Hispanic than African American. At the very least, Nevada’s results confirmed that Sanders is competing with Hispanics whether he won them or not. So Colorado is a key target for Sanders on March 1. Colorado’s Democratic caucus had no exit poll in 2008, but in the 2012 general election about 15% of voters were Hispanic versus just about 3% who were black. Given Clinton’s small win in Nevada, which has a larger African-American electorate, Sanders could very well win Colorado.

Democrats Abroad Democratic primary

Delegates at stake: 13 (nine regional, four global)

2008 primary winner: Barack Obama

2008 nonwhite % of electorate: Unknown

This primary for Democrats living outside the United States will take place from March 1 through March 8. Participants can vote by mail, fax, email, or in-person at voting centers across the world.

Georgia Democratic primary

Delegates at stake: 102 (67 CD, 35 statewide)

2008 primary winner: Barack Obama

2008 nonwhite % of electorate: 57% (51% black)

If Alabama and South Carolina go heavily for Clinton, then Georgia likely will too. Three recent polls averaged together show Clinton up a whopping 38 points. Again, watch the margin -- and the results in the congressional districts, particularly the ones that have smaller African-American populations.

Massachusetts Democratic primary

Delegates at stake: 91 (59 CD, 32 statewide)

2008 primary winner: Hillary Clinton

2008 nonwhite % of electorate: 15% (6% black, 5% Hispanic, 4% other)

Clinton won Massachusetts by 15 points in 2008, but the state’s demographics don’t fit the current version of her candidacy. In fact, the state looks a lot like New Hampshire, which Sanders won easily. A couple of recent polls either show the state tied or Sanders ahead by a little. While Massachusetts is more diverse than New Hampshire, it still seems like an obvious target for the Vermont senator and arguably a must-win. Both Clinton and Sanders are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads in the Bay State.

Minnesota Democratic caucus

Delegates at stake: 77 (50 CD, 27 statewide)

2008 caucus winner: Barack Obama

2008 nonwhite % of electorate: 11%*

Here’s another Super Tuesday caucus state where Sanders could do well because of a relatively small minority population, plus he’s outspending Clinton on television in pursuit of a victory.

Oklahoma Democratic primary

Delegates at stake: 38 (25 CD, 13 statewide)

2008 primary winner: Hillary Clinton

2008 nonwhite % of electorate: 18%

It seems strange that Oklahoma -- one of the most Republican states in the nation at the federal level -- might be a key state in the Democrats’ Super Tuesday, but that could be the case next week. Oklahoma, like aforementioned Arkansas, was a strong Clinton state in 2008: She defeated Obama 55%-31% in the Sooner State, with John Edwards getting another 10%. Yet the most recent poll, by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, showed essentially a tie earlier this month.

Earlier this week, a West Virginia poll showed Sanders crushing Clinton by nearly 30 points in that once-very pro-Clinton state (granted, it’s just one poll of a primary that’s not coming until May). Oklahoma is similar to states like Arkansas and West Virginia: They are culturally conservative and religious and also not very diverse. They are states that were historically very Democratic at the local and state level.

To the extent that there are conservative, anti-Obama Democrats anywhere in the nation, one might find them in states like these. As friend of the Crystal Ball Richard Skinner of the Sunlight Foundation observed in response to the West Virginia poll, “Maybe anti-Obama Dems see Sanders as anti-Obama candidate.” That might make sense, given how closely Clinton is now tied with Obama through her service as secretary of state. So surprisingly, Oklahoma, one of the most conservative states in the nation, could be fertile ground for the very liberal Sanders -- as could West Virginia, which votes in May and overwhelmingly backed Clinton over Obama in 2008 but has now possibly turned against her.

One potential plus for Clinton is that, like Arkansas, Oklahoma’s Democrats were about 50% “moderate” in 2008.

Tennessee Democratic primary

Delegates at stake: 67 (44 CD, 23 statewide)

2008 primary winner: Hillary Clinton

2008 nonwhite % of electorate: 34% (29% black)

Tennessee’s white Democrats are probably fairly similar to Oklahoma’s, but the Volunteer State does have a bigger nonwhite vote, which is almost entirely African American and should strongly support Clinton. The Volunteer State isn’t quite as promising for her as some of the other Southern states, but she still looks like a favorite, and like many other Southern states Sanders does not appear to be really competing for Tennessee, at least on television.

Texas Democratic primary

Delegates at stake: 222 (145 apportioned through state Senate districts, 77 statewide)

2008 primary winner: Hillary Clinton

2008 nonwhite % of electorate: 54% (32% Hispanic, 19% black)

If Sanders truly is vying with Clinton among the Hispanic vote -- perhaps not winning those voters, but coming close -- Texas suddenly becomes a lot more interesting. Like some of its Southern counterparts, Texas will have a majority nonwhite electorate, but it will be more Hispanic than African American. Clinton has to be favored in the Lone Star State, but this is another test -- a much bigger test -- of her standing amongst Hispanics.

Vermont Democratic primary

Delegates at stake: 16 (All 16 awarded proportionally statewide because Vermont only has one at-large congressional district)

2008 primary winner: Barack Obama

2008 nonwhite % of electorate: 6%

If recent polling is an indication, Clinton is in danger of not even reaching 15% in Sanders’ home state, which could give Sanders a clean sweep of the state’s delegates. Fortunately for Clinton, Vermont has one of the smallest delegate counts of any state.

Virginia Democratic primary

Delegates at stake: 95 (62 CD, 33 statewide)

2008 primary winner: Barack Obama

2008 nonwhite % of electorate: 38% (30% black)

Geoffrey Skelley took an in-depth look at our home state’s primary as a companion piece in this week’s Crystal Ball. While Sanders will have pockets of strength in the Old Dominion, Clinton is favored here, as she is throughout the rest of the South.

Domanda stupida... ma alle primarie chi può votare? Un americano può per esempio votare sia alle primarie Democratiche sia a quelle Repubblicane?

Non ho mai capito il meccanismo dei voti per le primarie americane scusate

Leviathan ha scritto:Domanda stupida... ma alle primarie chi può votare? Un americano può per esempio votare sia alle primarie Democratiche sia a quelle Repubblicane?

Non ho mai capito il meccanismo dei voti per le primarie americane scusate

Dipende dallo stato. In alcuni le primarie sono riservate agli elettori che hanno dichiarato/son registarti con il partito, in altri sono aperte a tutti gli aventi diritto.

Gio ha scritto:

Leviathan ha scritto:Domanda stupida... ma alle primarie chi può votare? Un americano può per esempio votare sia alle primarie Democratiche sia a quelle Repubblicane?

Non ho mai capito il meccanismo dei voti per le primarie americane scusate

Dipende dallo stato. In alcuni le primarie sono riservate agli elettori che hanno dichiarato/son registarti con il partito, in altri sono aperte a tutti gli aventi diritto.

Cio' non toglie che puoi comunque cambiare idea/partito alle votazioni nazionali anche se sei registrato Rep o Dem

Rico Tubbs ha scritto:

Gio ha scritto:

Dipende dallo stato. In alcuni le primarie sono riservate agli elettori che hanno dichiarato/son registarti con il partito, in altri sono aperte a tutti gli aventi diritto.

Cio' non toglie che puoi comunque cambiare idea/partito alle votazioni nazionali anche se sei registrato Rep o Dem

Assolutamente .... La registrazione del voto, oltre a garantire continue telefonate per soldi, e` necessaria in alcuni stati per votare alle primarie del partito .... come voti, se voti, poi e` affare tuo.

Gio ha scritto:

Rico Tubbs ha scritto: Cio' non toglie che puoi comunque cambiare idea/partito alle votazioni nazionali anche se sei registrato Rep o Dem

Assolutamente .... La registrazione del voto, oltre a garantire continue telefonate per soldi, e` necessaria in alcuni stati per votare alle primarie del partito .... come voti, se voti, poi e` affare tuo.

Immagino non per darteli

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnpO_RTSNmQ[/youtube]

Il pezzo di John Oliver su Drumpf e' la prima forte e impattante botta che riceve il candidato repubblicano. Purtroppo da quando Jon Stewart si e' ritirato e Stephen Colbert e' passato al Late Show il giornalismo satirico-politico era praticamente sparito (a parte alcuni interventi appunto di John Oliver, che pero' purtroppo va in onda una volta a settimana e su un canale a pagamento). Il Daily Show ai tempi di Stewart era uno dei programmi piu' influenti nel panorama politico, purtroppo ora e' una pappetta molle e abbastanza noiosa.

La maratona di Mentana

Aggiungo le Super Guide del Super Tuesday, made by fivethirtyeight.com
DEM
GOP

Paperone ha scritto:La maratona di Mentana

Conteggio delegati primarie dopo il Super Tuesday

Clinton 1000, Sanders 371 (2382 per vincere).

Trump 274, Cruz 149, Rubio 82 (1237 per vincere).

Manca ancora molta strada.

Rubio out...
a questo punto è lanciato per perdere anche la "sua" Florida...e lì si ritirerà

Ieri sera Cruz in ogni intervista rilasciata "invitava" gli avversari a farsi da parte perché lui Trump 1v1 lo batte.
Chiaramente tutti gli altri candidati pensano e dicono la stessa cosa di loro stessi, ergo nessuno si fa da parte e Trump andrà a vincere la nomination. Anche se, in una intervista che ho visto a msnbc, un pezzo grosso del gop ha detto che non è detto che alla convention venga scelto un'altro candidato invece che Trump, nonostante la scelta popolare. Si stanno battendo da soli, nonostante Hillary sia imo un candidato scarsissimo arriverà alla presidenza per mancanza di avversari. Io spero ancora in Bernie ma ormai c'è ben poco da fare