Saber-football: come leggere le statistiche

[Angyair]

Anche se a molti potrà non piacere: The Best Playoff Quarterbacks In The Super Bowl Era

Ah le statistiche! Per essere davvero forte un QB deve saper convertire i 3 down nei playoffs...
Fenomeno, californiano, incompreso.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/co ... ffs/21101/

Non ho capito però perché toglie dall'equazione i drop(oltre al perchè considera solo i QB "recenti" senza quantificare il recenti), già che ci stai...

[Wolviesix]

Io non capisco perchè si considerino i terzi down, cos'è, se converti un terzo vale di più che prendere un primo down su un secondo?

[Angyair]

Io non capisco perchè si considerino i terzi down, cos'è, se converti un terzo vale di più che prendere un primo down su un secondo?

I terzi down sono clucth!

[Angyair]

Ottimo articolo di PFF su come leggere le stats e su che valore dargli.

[Angyair]

Metto anche qui il link all'articolo dui Jaguars e le stats avanzate:

E se avessero ragione loro?
Interessante pezzo sul processo di scouting dei Jaguars e su come hanno utilizzato le statistiche avanzate per capire come potranno evolvere tra i pro i prospetti sotto osservazione.

[Brian_di_Nazareth]

Bella serie di articoli di PFF su come i QB si "muovono" nelle varie situazioni che gli si presentano.
Leggerli tutti è un'impera ma ci sono spunti interessanti.

"QB in focus"

[Angyair]

Per chi se lo fosse perso....dall'ultimo MMQB di Peter King:

Cris Collinsworth buys a chunk of Pro Football Focus.

This is an interesting story. From his home in England, Neil Hornsby, one of the biggest football fans on the planet, and his staff at Pro Football Focus have made a business of analyzing the performance of every player on every snap and grading their performances against every other player at the same position. Born in 2006, Pro Football Focus has done such a thorough job that 13 teams have contracts with the company to provide the kind of data on players and formations they can’t get anywhere else.

So this spring, Collinsworth was looking to improve his data collection and signed up for an annual insider’s subscription to PFF. The free part of the site looked real, but he wanted to know more, and so he filled in the email contact form asking for someone to get back to him. Hornsby, with his thick English accent, phoned up. “I thought I’d been scammed,’’ Collinsworth said. “So I figured I would ask him a bunch of questions, you know, to expose him … and after about five minutes I could tell he was absolutely legit, so I just shut up and listened to Neil talk about football at a very high level.”

At first Collinsworth said he wanted to simply get to know more about all 32 teams without having to do the kind of film study and painstaking research that would take a couple of days at least—in his words, “to be in position Monday morning to know what would normally take me till Tuesday night to know.’’ Collinsworth said he was actually thinking of engaging some people to watch NFL tape and grade it for him until he realized PFF already did it, and did it accurately. So last week he reached an agreement with Horsnby to buy a significant stake in the company. Hornsby and his crew of 12 full-time graders continue, and Collinsworth will use his influence to help grow the company and seek out new business for it.

There was one final test for Collinsworth. He and Hornsby separately graded a game. When they compared notes, their grades were very close. “And when we went back over them,’’ Collinsworth said, “I’d say on 50 percent of the discrepancies, they were right and I was wrong.”

The deal came together in a couple of months this summer, culminating last week. “What really impressed me,’’ said Collinsworth, “is the fact that 13 NFL teams have contracted with Pro Football Focus for their data. I mean, I have been around the NFL for over 30 years, I know how hard it is to get behind the wall of those teams. And they’ve got 13 teams to trust their data. That’s huge.”

“What appealed to me was Cris is interested in football for the right reasons—for pure football reasons,” said Hornsby, who has been a guest on my training camp tour for the past several years. “People like Cris want legitimate content. And I think he’ll help us get in front of other people who realize that legitimate content has an important place with the public today.”

[GoPats]

Per chi se lo fosse perso....dall'ultimo MMQB di Peter King:

Cris Collinsworth buys a chunk of Pro Football Focus.

This is an interesting story. From his home in England, Neil Hornsby, one of the biggest football fans on the planet, and his staff at Pro Football Focus have made a business of analyzing the performance of every player on every snap and grading their performances against every other player at the same position. Born in 2006, Pro Football Focus has done such a thorough job that 13 teams have contracts with the company to provide the kind of data on players and formations they can’t get anywhere else.

So this spring, Collinsworth was looking to improve his data collection and signed up for an annual insider’s subscription to PFF. The free part of the site looked real, but he wanted to know more, and so he filled in the email contact form asking for someone to get back to him. Hornsby, with his thick English accent, phoned up. “I thought I’d been scammed,’’ Collinsworth said. “So I figured I would ask him a bunch of questions, you know, to expose him … and after about five minutes I could tell he was absolutely legit, so I just shut up and listened to Neil talk about football at a very high level.”

At first Collinsworth said he wanted to simply get to know more about all 32 teams without having to do the kind of film study and painstaking research that would take a couple of days at least—in his words, “to be in position Monday morning to know what would normally take me till Tuesday night to know.’’ Collinsworth said he was actually thinking of engaging some people to watch NFL tape and grade it for him until he realized PFF already did it, and did it accurately. So last week he reached an agreement with Horsnby to buy a significant stake in the company. Hornsby and his crew of 12 full-time graders continue, and Collinsworth will use his influence to help grow the company and seek out new business for it.

There was one final test for Collinsworth. He and Hornsby separately graded a game. When they compared notes, their grades were very close. “And when we went back over them,’’ Collinsworth said, “I’d say on 50 percent of the discrepancies, they were right and I was wrong.”

The deal came together in a couple of months this summer, culminating last week. “What really impressed me,’’ said Collinsworth, “is the fact that 13 NFL teams have contracted with Pro Football Focus for their data. I mean, I have been around the NFL for over 30 years, I know how hard it is to get behind the wall of those teams. And they’ve got 13 teams to trust their data. That’s huge.”

“What appealed to me was Cris is interested in football for the right reasons—for pure football reasons,” said Hornsby, who has been a guest on my training camp tour for the past several years. “People like Cris want legitimate content. And I think he’ll help us get in front of other people who realize that legitimate content has an important place with the public today.”

C'è anche questo:

Well, PFF hasn't broken through every wall. On Monday afternoon, new Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer ended the opening statement of his press conference by giving his piece on PFF and those outside the league who would dare to analyze what happens between the lines.

"The last thing that I want to talk about before I let you guys go is this Pro Football Focus thing," Zimmer said. "I know everybody wants to get the scoop on this, but quite honestly there’s not really anybody... I look at the grades and I can’t tell you what a 0.7 is or anything like that, but I know that the people that are grading our games and our defenses and our offenses, they don’t know if the tackle gets beat inside, if we weren’t sliding out to the nickel or who our guys are supposed to cover. I guarantee they don’t know who is in our blitz package and what they are supposed to do. I would just ask everybody to take that with a grain of salt, including our fans. We as coaches get paid a whole bunch of money to do the jobs that we do, evaluate the players that we evaluate and grade them how we grade them and not based on someone else.
http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/08/25/mike-z ... ball-focus" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Angyair]

I would just ask everybody to take that with a grain of salt, che poi sarebbe la base eh...

[Peyton_Manning18]

Beh. Zimmer dice delle cose giustissime. Giudicare una giocata senza sapere lo schema chiamato può portare a errori. L'importante è esserne consapevoli quando si valuta un giocatore.

[Angyair]

Beh. Zimmer dice delle cose giustissime. Giudicare una giocata senza sapere lo schema chiamato può portare a errori. L'importante è esserne consapevoli quando si valuta un giocatore.

Ne abbiamo spesso discusso con Andrea Campagna: è ovvio che tu puoi giudicare dal video la prestazione di un giocatore, come si comporta, ma devi essere sempre consapevole che ti mancano alcuni dati importanti. Si riesce a vedere l'effetto di una giocata ma non tutto quello che l'ha generata. Il problema è di chi non se ne rende conto e vuole ridurre tutto ad un semplice numero.
I numeri di PFF penso che siano importanti per le squadre soprattutto come riscontro a quello che hanno visto loro perché loro, di sicuro, possiedono maggior dati rispetto a chi vede solo il video.


Poi magari Zimmer ha detto così solo perchè è uno da "old-style football" per cui le statistiche sono solo per i perdenti! non mi sembra comunque

[Wolviesix]

Comunque penso che chi guarda i video si renda conto se il tackle "gets beat inside".

[Angyair]

Comunque penso che chi guarda i video si renda conto se il tackle "gets beat inside".

Ovvio, però lui diceva che non si può sapere se è "intenzionale" perché l'assegamento era un altro.

[Angyair]

Ricordo sempre alcune frasi:

The problem is the rankings need a bit of context. Neil Hornsby didn’t want to have position rankings at all. He figured people would look at them, see the numbers out of context and run with only half the story. That’s exactly what happens all too often, but if you think a little more about things they can still be excellent tools.

The rankings also don’t take into account a guy’s role compared to his peers – we leave that to you to assign how much weight you want to put on it.

The rankings are a great tool, but should never be presented as the whole story.

Don’t limit yourself to just the season stats.

Baseball can easily be distilled into a few numbers that accurately reflect key trends over time. Football virtually never works like that – there are just too many moving parts on any given play and too few data points. Identical situations present themselves too rarely to produce bullet-proof statistics.

Stats are nice, but no one statistic can come close to telling the whole story.



Queste sono frasi estrapolate da un articolo, se lo volete eleggere per intero, e ve lo consiglio (anche se questa è già la seconda volta), seguite il link.

[Angyair]

C'è qualcuno che vuole partecipare ad un abbonamento annuale di gruppo alla sezione Premium di ProFootballFocus?