Poi c'è Gosselin, che ha votato per Randy Johnson (ed altri 8, visto che aveva 9 uomini sulla scheda) ma non per Pedro Martinez. Fantastico, ma perché?
"I'm judicious with the term `first-ballot Hall of Famer,' '' wrote Gosselin. “Not all Hall of Famers are created equally in my eyes. A select few are deserving of that first ballot honor. I vote on the Pro Football Hall of Fame as well and I'm just as judicious there. I don't vote for many first-ballot candidates. It doesn't mean I don't think they are Hall of Famers. This is a selection process -- not an all-or-nothing vote on one player, one year. I'm just very select with those I vote on the first ballot. I reserve those votes for the extraordinary. Randy Johnson with his 300 wins and five Cy Youngs was a first ballot in my eyes. Pedro is certainly deserving of the Hall of Fame, but not in my eyes on the first ballot."
Asked to explain what statistics and analysis he relied upon to vote for Smoltz and not Martinez, Gosselin sent back the following.
“I thought what Smoltz did was extraordinary -- he dominated at both the front and back end of a pitching staff,'' he wrote. “He was a multi-time all-star as both a starter and a closer. At different times in his career he led the league in both victories as a starter and saves as a reliever. He won 213 games. How many more games would he have won had he not spent three seasons in the middle of his career as Atlanta's closer? And an elite closer at that? He returned to the rotation and again became an all-star.”
Quindi Smoltz è un first ballot HoFer, Pedro Martinez no. Siamo arrivati al punto in cui essere rilievi da 60 IP è meglio di essere partenti da 200+ IP.
Peraltro è un abuso del voto, visto che non esiste il concetto di "first ballot". Bah.
Pedro si fermerà attorno al 93-95%. Randy Johnson penso che arrivi a 95-97%. Poi un giorno qualcuno mi spiegherà anche perché il "late peak" di Bonds è una prova di uso di steroidi (ed analogamente, Bagwell e Piazza sono sospettati nonostante non esistano prove o indizi di alcun genere), mentre il "late peak" di Randy Johnson no.