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Ender Wiggin ha scritto:The Goods ha scritto:Perfetto Gibbons.
Gestione del bullpen eccellente.
Gara 3 ok, ed era, moooolto più facile con un robusto lead...
Ti ricordo l'ottavo inning di gara2 in cui era sul +1 a 4 out dalla W e ha lasciato Cecil lhp a Nap con Osuna Sanchez Lowe e chiunque, intonsi...
What made it a controversial move, both in the gamethread at the time and afterwards, was that despite being utterly dominant and by far the Blue Jays' best reliever in the second half, Cecil was a lefty. And Mike Napoli is one of the best lefty mashers in baseball.
[...]
On the other hand, Cecil is not your generic lefty in that he's highly effective against opposite handed hitters.
[...]
Still, with a bullpen full of quality right-handed relievers who are similarly highly effective like Cecil - Mark Lowe, Liam Hendriks and Aaron Sanchez - surely it's a slamdunk to play Napoli's massive splits, right? And thus John Gibbons made a big mistake, perhaps playing the small sample size.
As it turns out, not at all. While Napoli destroys lefties overall, we're not interested in how he does against generic lefties, since that's not Cecil
[...]
I pulled Napoli's results for the last three years against individal LHP and LHP [...] and kept only the pitchers who had a wOBA of .300 or lower, meaning they were at least roughly 10% better than average against righty batters.
This narrows it down to 26 lefties that Napoli has faced a total of 95 times, compared to 130 righties faced a total of 438 times. Both work out to be excellent comparison groups. As mentioned above, Cecil has a .273 wOBA against right batters over the last three years, and these elites lefties Napoli has faced have weighted average wOBA of .278. The righties have a weighted average of .272, so they're actually slightly better but it's not something to worry out. So let's see Napoli's results against each group:
(tabella)
Napoli is actually substantially worst against these lefties than righties, giving up 50 points of batting average, 30 on base points, and 75 points of slugging. He strikes out substantially more of the time, 38% compared to 31% while drawing free passes (BB* is non-intentional walks + hit by pitch) at the exact same rate. His home run rate is almost precisely the same, but he's been got extra base hits at over twice the rate against righties. In sum, there is actually nothing that Napoli has done substantially better against these lefties than the righties, and a numbers of things he's done substantially worse.
Now do I think Napoli is actually worse against elite RHB neutralizing lefties than righties? I'd venture almost certainly not, there is probably some element of small sample size here. But but the same token, at the very least we'd have to say his platoon splits disappear. In other words, Napoli absolutely feasts on crappy left-handed pitchers without the tools to neutralize opposite handed batters. But that's not Brett Cecil.
Beyond the quantitative argument above, there was further good reasons to stick with Cecil. He's been your best reliever ("dance with the one that brought you"), and he had his stuff as he easily dispatched Fielder whereas you a new guy might not have his stuff. Finally, if you bring in a new guy, it's for one batter if he does his job, because Roberto Osuna would have the 9th. And he's been less than automatic recently, and if something happened and it went to extras you'd regret burning an elite reliever for one batter for a pretty marginal upgrade (this is assuming there was some sort of platoon split).
In short, it sucks that it didn't work out. But leaving Cecil out to face Napoli was completely the right call on all fronts. Good job, Gibby.
Hobbit83 ha scritto: Di nuovo a tal proposito...
Rocky ha scritto:Ma il senso di far lanciare Price con un vantaggio di 6 runs e quindi non averlo a disposizione per gara 5, qual'è? Pensavo gli facesse lanciare un inning al massimo, facendo una sorta di bullpen session "live", invece ha finito per lanciare quasi 90 volte.
Rocky ha scritto:Ma il senso di far lanciare Price con un vantaggio di 6 runs e quindi non averlo a disposizione per gara 5, qual'è? Pensavo gli facesse lanciare un inning al massimo, facendo una sorta di bullpen session "live", invece ha finito per lanciare quasi 90 volte.
The Goods ha scritto: Così sarà disponibile nel bullpen anche domani e poi si vedrà come aggiustare la rotazione per l'eventuale ALCS.
Non concordo assolutamente con la gestione, ma questa è la spiegazione.
Hobbit83 ha scritto:Ma Hamels è l'asso dichiarato....
A questo proposito, mi viene in mente questo pensiero pazzo. Sottolineo pazzo e improbabilissimo, ma forse non impossibile.
Poniamo che Gibbons abbia deciso che preferisce avere Stroman nella gara secca rispetto a Price, per come ha visto David in questi giorni.
Come fai a non dare la gara decisiva in mano al superacquisto della trade deadline, uno dei migliori lanciatori della lega se non il migliore quest'anno?
Come fai a preferirgli, secco, un quasi rookie per una partita da dentro o fuori senza che si incazzi e che, con le (ridicole) voci che già circolano sul suo essere "choker in postseason" e la free agency incombente, magari senta ancora più peso addosso quando in un eventuale turno successivo avrai ovviamente bisogno i lui?
Gli fai fare un rilievo lungo ma non lunghissimo, tenendolo a disposizione in caso di disastro, ma potendo legittimamente partire col ragazzino.
Il mio primo ricordo di baseball è l'HR di Joe Carter che su tele+ all'epoca mandavano in continuazione e mi gasava tantissimo da bambinoHobbit83 ha scritto:Dickey che fa il giro di tutta la prima fila dando il 5 a ogni tifoso
non frega un cazzo a nessuno ma è per dire che sono contento per voi e poi il Canada nelle leghe professionistiche americane è sempre così diverso ed affascinante. 