La lotta per il titolo di MVP della AL ha acceso una forte discussione tra chi la pensa in un modo (classico) e chi in un altro (sabermetrica). Mi piacerebbe conoscere il vostro pensiero. Anche tra i siti mainstream ci sono delle opinioni totalmente discordanti, sia su questo fatto che sull'eventuale votazione per un rilievo come Cy Young (Kimbrel nella NL per la precisione).
Non so se sia il caso di aprire un nuovo topic o se ne stavate parlando altrove, ma mi sembrava uno spunto interessante.
Porto un paio di esempi, più precisamente sulla questione del Cy Young.
I numeri di Kimbrel sono impressionanti e lì da vedere.
He's faced 227 hitters this year -- and has come within one K of striking out HALF of them (113). No pitcher in history has ever done that. Of those 227 hitters, only 26 of them have gotten a hit -- giving him the lowest opponent batting average (.123) ever (min. 50 IP). The OPS of those hitters? A microscopic .356 -- also a record for the six decades or so for which that OPS data is available. His 0.65 WHIP? The lowest by any NL reliever in history. His strikeout ratio of 16.5 per nine innings? Best of all time.
Cosa ne pensano i nostri "esperti"?
Jayson Stark, ESPN
For more than a week now, I've been laying out the case for Craig Kimbrel as the National League Cy Young winner. And every time I've written about it, tweeted about it or talked about it, I get the same reaction: Can't consider him. He's a closer. Doesn't pitch enough innings. Well, here's my answer: Not his fault.
So as much as I admire the seasons of Clayton Kershaw, R.A. Dickey, Gio Gonzalez and all the excellent rotation candidates, what about their seasons can be described as "unparalleled" or "historic?" Nothing that compares with all the stuff Kimbrel has done that no pitcher has ever done before.
Tom Verducci, Sports Illustrated
Braves closer Craig Kimbrel will finish much higher on the overall ballot than mine, which is like valuing placekickers above quarterbacks. Medlen faced more than twice as many hitters as did Kimbrel.
Jonah Keri, Grantland
Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman have put up borderline historic numbers as the closers for their respective teams (as has Fernando Rodney in the AL). But today's closers throw about one-third as many innings as the league's top starters, sometimes even less. Even after accounting for leverage, the innings argument would be enough to swing the Cy Young vote toward starters, barring an absolutely horrific year for the guys who take the ball every fifth day. Here's something that doesn't get talked about nearly enough, though: Pitching in relief is just so damn easy compared to starting. Oh sure, if you want to argue that the mental rigors of pitching in save situations — or even more so tie games in the eighth and ninth innings — creates more stress than your typical Sunday start against the Astros, that's fine. I'm talking about the physical demands of one job vs. another. Starters need to muster nasty enough stuff to dominate hitters, while also saving enough to get through six or seven innings (or in the case of the best starters, eight or nine innings). Meanwhile, most of today's highly specialized relievers, be they closers, setup men, or one-out guys brought in for platoon matchups, can use maximum effort on every pitch, knowing they'll rarely pitch more than one inning.
Tre modi di pensare alquanto diversi. Personalmente tenderei a pensarla allo stesso modo di Stark, mentre mi sembra che Verducci se ne lavi le mani di gran fretta per non affrontare il problema. Se i rilievi sono messi sullo stesso piano dei partenti, perchè non andrebbero considerati per questo premio? Che colpa hanno se il loro ruolo è quello di affrontare un terzo dei battitori rispetto ai lanciatori partenti?
Giusto per curiosità, se non avete voglia di aprire i link. Per quanto riguarda l'MVP della AL, Stark e Keri votano per Trout mentre Verducci pende dalla parte di Cabrera, anche se una delle motivazioni finali con cui arriva a questa decisione è palesemente ridicola. "The Tigers were three games out with 15 to play and roared past Chicago to win the AL Central. The Angels went home." Peccato che non precisi il fatto che da quando Trout ha indossato la casacca degli Angels, questi hanno avuto il miglior record della AL. E che oltretutto LA ha chiuso con 89 W, DET con 88. Va beh.
Detto questo, i miei voti andrebbero in questa direzione.
AL MVP Mike Trout
NL MVP Buster Posey
AL Cy Young Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young Craig Kimbrel
AL RoY Mike Trout
NL RoY Wade Miley
AL Manager Buck Showalter
NL Manager Davey Johnson